“El 2018 transitarà per un cicle econòmic de caire expansiu, més madur i estable que els anteriors”


20/12/2017 | Antoni Riera, catedràtic de la Universitat de les Illes Balears i director de la Fundació Impulsa

Quines són les 2 amenaces i les 2 oportunitats per al 2018 en economia?

Amenaces

1- Les principals amenaces es mantenen d’una banda a l’esfera geopolítica europea (Alemanya i Itàlia), però també nacional i, d’acord amb aquesta, amb la negociació dels múltiples acords de comerç internacional (entre països i zones econòmiques) que estan sent objecte de revisió.

2- A abast intern, l’amenaça prové de la capacitat de mantenir el pols de la demanda interna (principal suport de l’expansió econòmica fins ara), un cop es concreti una política fiscal menys acomodatícia, que es podria intensificar arran de l’evolució a l’alça de la inflació per mor de l’augment del preu de la cistella energètica.

Oportunitats

El 2018 transitarà per un cicle econòmic de caire expansiu i molt més madur i estable que els anteriors. Aquesta és una tònica que es produirà tan a abast mundial, com europeu i nacional. Aquest fet amaga una doble oportunitat:

1- La possibilitat de dur a terme reformes de caire estructural que milloren la productivitat de l’economia tota vegada s’estan recuperant el nivells d’ocupació i creixement previs a la crisi. La prioritat de 2018 no hauria de ser produir més sinó produir millor. En aquest afer, la digitalització dels processos de producció i la millora de les competències de la força laboral és clau.

2- L’actual cicle econòmic permet posar a l’agenda qüestions socials/ambientals que fins ara han estat en un segon pla i avançar cap un creixement més inclusiu i sostenible abordant aspectes com la pobresa i l’equitat o el canvi climàtic.

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Sobre l'autor

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