“L’augment del salari mínim, l’exportació i el turisme són les principals oportunitats de l’economia el 2018”


20/12/2017 | Miquel Puig, economista

Quines són les 2 amenaces i les 2 oportunitats per al 2018 en economia?

Amenaces

1- La inestabilitat política. No em refereixo tant als fets d’octubre de 2017 a Catalunya, la importància dels quals s’ha magnificat massa per raons partidistes i que, en principi, només han tingut un impacte passatger sobre el turisme a la ciutat de Barcelona. Em sembla més procupant el deteriorament de la solidesa de les institucions polítiques i, en particular, del prestigi del poder judicial. El fenomen del 15-M i l’independentisme català són símptomes de la pèrdua de prestigi i, per tant, de legitimitat de les institucions. Si aquesta deriva no es corregeix a base de construir nous consensos, l’economia pot acabar essent perjudicada.

2- Deixar d’invertir en el futur. L’època de l’austeritat no ha acabat, ni molt menys. Amb tipus d’interès a l’alça i amb les pensions pressionant per motius demogràfics, els pressupostos públics seguiran tensionats durant molts anys. Si, com fins ara, es decideix sacrificar la inversió en educació i en R+D, acabarem pagant-ho molt car.

Oportunitats

1- La pujada del salari mínim interprofessional  (SMI) és una de les oportunitats. Si es compleixen els anuncis, a Espanya pujarà un 30% entre 2016 i 2020 en termes monetaris i gairebé un 22% en termes reals. Encara estarà per sota del que és habitual als països del nostre entorn, però suposa un primer pas per mutar el nostre model productiu a un model que no es basi tant en els salaris molt baixos.

2- Les exportacions i el turisme. El món és molt gran i la recuperació econòmica global segueix endavant. L’any 2018 podem seguir aprofitant-nos d’aquest enorme mercat exterior.

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Sobre l'autor

Miquel Puig i Raposo, economista i director general del Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya.